Introduction:
The CLA approach – as theory and methodology – works to create a more diverse and inclusive vision of the future. It can be used to surface and explore the underlying stories and power dynamics that shape the way individuals or groups relate to each other. It can also reveal existing patterns of exclusion and privilege that lead to exclusionary practices. By mapping out stories and metaphors, CLA creates an environment open to different perspectives, leading to better decision-making and more equitable outcomes. At a practical level, CLA offers individuals the inner awareness to sense and discover how the layers of external beliefs and structures constrain personal agency. By examining the present, the goal is to understand the barriers that constrain the present and open possibilities to explore new futures. This approach is both introspective and collaborative, acknowledging that you cannot envision an outpost in the future without addressing what drives the present forward. CLA works to create alternative futures by making everyday assumptions problematic and subject to examination. Welcome to CLA3.5: the online source which is the continuation of CLA 3.0 Thirty Years of Transformative Research and Practice journey!
Ralph Mercer
Contents:
1. Exploring Barriers and Pathways towards Sarawak 2030 Skills Condition: A Causal Layered Analysis
by Noratikah Mohamad Ashari and Azeem Fazwan Ahmad Farouk
Abstract
Sarawak aspires to become a developed state in Malaysia by 2030. The Sarawak Digital Economy blueprint calls for the public sector to steer and facilitate a digital transformation to the industry, communities, and other stakeholders. Considering the infrastructures and technology that assent, it signifies the crucial need for the public sector to be equipped with the fitting skills and people strategies to effectively embark on this 2030 vision. Such skills condition needs to be addressed by relevant policy actors. Challenges to the condition pose in many layers (i.e., Litany, Systemic, Worldview, Metaphor). This paper seeks to explore the viewpoints of seven policy enablers on the barriers and pathways pertaining to the skills condition in the public sector for Sarawak 2030. Using Inayatullah’s Causal Layered Analysis, the paper reveals the short-term vs long-term challenges and solutions to those conditions. Results suggest the urgent need for planning and a reconnection among public sector to improve the current skills condition. Findings are further discussed with a transformed future as a guiding description for Sarawak 2030. This paper contributes to understanding a condition within a context, towards conscious policymaking via futures study method. The study’s scope and future directions are also discussed.
2. Deconstructing ChatGPT | Part 1
Interview by Sohail Inayatullah with ChatGPT
This is a two-part interview with ChatGPT. In part one, I ask it to examine itself i.e., conduct a CLA. In part two, I ask it to develop scenarios, a preferred vision, and a backcast of its evolution. The interview concludes with my reflections on the conversation.
INTRODUCTION
In January 2023, a LinkedIn colleague, Shiqin Choo, posted a chat he had with ChatGPT, an AI bot that uses human prompts to answer questions and engage in dialogue. He asked ChatGPT what Causal Layered Analysis was (Inayatullah, Mercer, Milojević, and Sweeney, 2023)? The answer was riddled with errors – founders, structure, purpose. The comments on the post tended to argue that give the bot some time to figure it out. I waited a week and then decided on the prompting of Colin Russo (not an AI bot) to experiment. I was interested in how it saw itself, its own futures. The conversation below is my interview with the bot. I had waited years for this experience having first heard about these possibilities in the late 1970s from the acclaimed futurist, James Dator.
2a.Reconstructing ChatGPT | Part 2
This is the second part of a two-part interview with ChatGPT. In part one, I asked it to examine itself i.e., conduct a CLA. In this part two, I ask it to develop scenarios, a preferred vision, and a backcast of itself. The interview concludes with my reflections on the conversation.
Introduction
SI: well, do you know the Change progression scenario method developed by Inayatullah and Milojević.
CG: Yes, I am familiar with the Change Progression Scenario method (CPS) developed by Sohail Inayatullah and Ivana Milojević (Milojević, 2004; Inayatullah, 2020).
The CPS method is a tool for analyzing and understanding the dynamics of social and political change. It is based on the idea that change can be understood as a progression through different stages or phases, from the current state of the system to a desired future state.
Disrupting Identity: Applying CLA to the Ongoing Digitization of the Self
Is Identity the Issue of Our Age?
How am I authenticated? What does my biology have in store for me? How can I explore alternative personas in a virtual game? Where does my identity go once I’m dead?
3. The Importance of Identity
Identity is fundamental not only to understanding ourselves but to enabling other people to understand who we are at any given moment, and therefore decide if they can trust us. Many voices in the 21st Century contend that identity is almost completely illusory (Wolfe, 2013). But it is clear to me that without the ability to identify a person as the same from one moment to the next, the ability to ascribe duties, rights and responsibilities to that person becomes impossible. Roger Scruton goes further than this suggesting that without a sense of identity, even emotions – such as anger, admiration, envy, and remorse – would vanish and the purpose of life on earth would vanish with them (Scruton, 1996). He’s right, since if one cannot ascribe any particular emotion to an identifiable person, how would one even start to relate to others, or form relationships at all?
Moreover, we often need to ascribe emotions to identifiable people in the virtual world, as well as the physical world, for there is a burgeoning number of people who we follow online, who do not physically exist in, what we might call, the real world. Virtual influencers such as Lil Miquela or Shudu or even the attractive computer-generated customer service advisors from Samsung, known as Neon people (Hitti, 2020) have appeared in place of real humans. Many of us are happy to engage with these characters online and even get into deep conversation. Teens from all over the world nervously wait for Lil Miquela’s latest post, whether that be to tell them how she was up all night working on a pitch, or spill the beans on the romantic status of her on-again-off-again boyfriend.
4. Exploring Barriers and Pathways towards Sarawak 2030 Skills Condition: A Causal Layered Analysis
By Noratikah Mohamad Ashari and Azeem Fazwan Ahmad Farouk
Abstract
Sarawak aspires to become a developed state in Malaysia by 2030. The Sarawak Digital Economy blueprint calls for the public sector to steer and facilitate a digital transformation to the industry, communities, and other stakeholders. Considering the infrastructures and technology that assent, it signifies the crucial need for the public sector to be equipped with the fitting skills and people strategies to effectively embark on this 2030 vision. Such skills condition needs to be addressed by relevant policy actors. Challenges to the condition pose in many layers (i.e., Litany, Systemic, Worldview, Metaphor). This paper seeks to explore the viewpoints of seven policy enablers on the barriers and pathways pertaining to the skills condition in the public sector for Sarawak 2030. Using Inayatullah’s Causal Layered Analysis, the paper reveals the short-term vs long-term challenges and solutions to those conditions. Results suggest the urgent need for planning and a reconnection among public sector to improve the current skills condition. Findings are further discussed with a transformed future as a guiding description for Sarawak 2030. This paper contributes to understanding a condition within a context, towards conscious policymaking via futures study method. The study’s scope and future directions are also discussed.
5. Beyond Despair, How Nihilism Can Motivate Us For Radical Systems Change
Abstract
Nihilism is perhaps most popularly understood as a belief in nothing, and that life is meaningless. But of course, it is more nuanced than this. Nihilism is not a belief that life is meaningless. It is discovering that the life you are living within the current cultural conditions does not feel meaningful to you. As a result, you go on living your life in ways that either try to evade reality or change it (Gertz, 2019). For years, I have noticed increasingly nihilistic sentiments online; nihilists dismissing activists for their ongoing attempts to organise, and even popular meme accounts based on nihilistic content; like “@cheerful_nihilism” which has almost 200k followers on Instagram as of writing this.
The goal of this research is to explore the prevalence and sources of nihilism today. I then want to look at how it relates to myself and other aspiring change-makers, as well as how we may channel our feelings of nihilism for radical systems change.
There are many interpretations of nihilism, so this research will begin by looking at how white western philosophers discussed concepts of nihilism, and then contextualising those ideas for considerations of privilege. I then go on to make a systems analysis of daily life under Western colonial capitalism, and argue that nihilism is a product of this system. In an attempt to determine if nihilism is becoming more prevalent, a netnographic scan will show some of the ways nihilism is rising in mainstream discourse online.
This paper goes on to synthesise the research, and discuss how it is relevant to aspiring changemakers. Since the Strategic Foresight and Innovation program at OCAD University is a microcosm of changemakers, I survey and interview my peers to see if there are shared feelings of nihilism amongst them.
To conclude, I look at how nihilism can inspire us to create radical systems change; with perspectives from non-white, Queer, Indigenous, Disabled, and revolutionary activists. In undoing aspects of colonial capitalism ingrained in us, such as toxic individualism, the commodification of everything, and the belief that capitalism is the only way – we may begin to create a world we can live more meaningfully in.
6. Visions for 6G Futures: a Causal Layered Analysis
By Seppo Yrjölä seppo.yrjola@oulu.fi, Petri Ahokangas, Marja Matinmikko-Blue
Abstract
This study extends and deepens the joint 6G vision building stemming from use cases, enabling technologies, key performance indicators (KPIs), key value indicators (KVIs), and business scenario litanies towards the social, the worldview, and the metaphors layers utilizing causal layered analysis (CLA) method. 6G visions are explored from different national perspectives assessing future initiatives from China, Europe, Japan, South Korea, and the US. The multiple ideologies and epistemes of the stakeholders are mapped to create a transformed future vision emphasizing the importance of 6G design from the triple bottom line of sustainability, including social, economic, and environmental perspectives. Collaborative research, harmonized standardization, and anticipatory regulation efforts were found essential in developing trustworthy and general-purpose 6G technologies for users and developers. Keywords—causal layered analysis; futures research; policy; scenarios; vision; 6G
7. CHANGING THE THERMOSTAT, BUT WHY? a causal layered analysis to understand the different discourses concerning energy vulnerability and to explore just futures
Abstract
Within the transition towards clean forms of energy, focus is mostly put on technological and economical rationales. This focus is one of the main causes of energy vulnerability. Energy vulnerability comes in many shapes and sizes, but is in all cases concerned with not having (sufficient) access to energy. Research on energy vulnerability is part of the larger theme of justice and is linked to research on climate justice and vulnerability. There are five different spheres of energy vulnerability: economy, environment, social, politics, and technology. The quantitative content analysis showed that energy vulnerability gained significantly more attention since 2021, and the newspaper articles focused mostly on economic matters, followed by articles on environmental issues. This study aims to explore futures in which energy vulnerability will become a problem of the past. Eight different dominant discourse…
8. Emergency Management Futures: Using Causal Layered Analysis to Make Paradigms in Emergency Management Visible
Abstract
There is a need for the field of emergency/disaster management to shift from managing disasters, to managing current and future risks and resilience-building as core targets to be reached by 2030. This is an evolutionary paradigm shift. Disasters frequently exacerbate social inequalities and existing power dynamics, and exposure and vulnerability are on the increase. Paradigm shifts are a conceptual transformation, and can be viewed as a prototype for revolutionary reorientation. This paper presents an emergency management paradigm analysis based on primary data collected by those working in emergency management. This paper outlines the following: 1) four archetypal patterns with systemic anomalies; 2) levels of uncertainty and postnormal potentiality as a system diagnostic to highlight emerging policy issues; 3) an understanding the anticipatory narrative, futures literacy and mental model; and 4) a potential pathway for a transformed paradigm.
9. Body Literacy: Our Vital Knowledge, Our Vital Power An Embodied Research Journey into developing Body Literacy as a Systems Thinker
Abstract
The menstrual cycle has been recognized as the fifth vital sign: a holistic health indicator that enables people who menstruate (PWM) to understand the state of their general health through physiological biomarkers. Understanding the menstrual cycle as a
vital sign empowers PWM to develop their body literacy which requires a capacity for systems thinking. While this fact was acknowledged in the early 2000’s, it is not common knowledge among PWM, healthcare, education, menstrual health product makers, or FemTech innovators. This knowledge gap has significant implications for the holistic health, confidence, and agency of PWM to make informed health decisions. This embodied research project aims to simultaneously develop my capabilities as a systems thinker while developing my body literacy. By applying systems thinking methods and tools rooted in feminist participatory action research, the research objective is to gain a systemic understanding of this vital knowledge gap from multiple perspectives: the individual PWM, the community of body literacy educators, and society at large. This study investigates the systemic factors that have created a society with this knowledge gap. It then identifies the community of actors working to close this knowledge gap. It concludes with a systems-based approach to exploring the opportunity spaces revealed through the research to promote social change to scale and emerge a new system.
10. Beyond Despair,
How Nihilism Can Motivate Us For Radical Systems Change
Abstract
Nihilism is perhaps most popularly understood as a belief in nothing, and that life is meaningless. But of course, it is more nuanced than this. Nihilism is not a belief that life is meaningless. It is discovering that the life you are living within the current cultural conditions does not feel meaningful to you. As a result, you go on living your life in ways that either try to evade reality or change it (Gertz, 2019). For years, I have noticed increasingly nihilistic sentiments online; nihilists dismissing activists for their ongoing attempts to organise, and even popular meme accounts based on nihilistic content; like “@cheerful_nihilism” which has almost 200k followers on Instagram as of writing this. The goal of this research is to explore the prevalence and sources of nihilism today. I then want to look at how it relates to myself and other aspiring change-makers, as well as how we may channel our feelings of nihilism for radical systems change.
11. The COVID-19 Pandemic as a Stress Test for Learning Organizations
Abstract
This research project seeks to evaluate Peter Senge’s concept of the Learning Organization as a framework upon which employers can rely to address the unmet needs of employees in the context of the “the Great Resignation.” Senge’s concept was formalized as an organizational structural model and leadership modeling tool in his The Fifth Discipline first published in 1990. The Learning Organization framework outlines five key disciplines that an organization can implement to strike a balance between organizational success and employee engagement, and which may be the solution to weathering stressful events such as the global pandemic we are currently experiencing. Senge’s framework has been widely integrated into managerial practices since its initial publication, but organizations can find it difficult to maintain its tenets when outside influences induce pressure on them.
We are seeing the impacts of the external influence of a global pandemic on organizations resulting in the Great Resignation. The COVID-19 pandemic provides a ripe context within which to assess organizational responses in the global job market as employees are leaving their current employers. Employees are stating they are leaving their jobs because their organizations are not providing transparency, trust, collaborative work environments, a culture of inclusion and belonging, nor career development and upskilling.
How might the Learning Organization framework aid organizations in their responses to disruptions in the workforce? Through a literature review and Causal Layered Analysis this project assesses the causes of the Great Resignation, and of employee needs, organizational stressors, and the benefits of a Learning Organization. This research project argues that when all five disciplines of the Learning Organization are embedded within the organizational culture of a given company, that company has built a resilience to external and internal stressors that can allow it to meet the employees needs in the workplace.
13. Exploring Images of the Future of Women Cyclists Using the Futures Triangle
By Nur Anisah Abdullah and Azra Naimi
Abstract
Women cyclists are an underrepresented group and initiatives taken to promote the uptake of cycling among women have been limited. This exploratory study employs the Futures Triangle as a framework in structuring a series of in-depth interviews conducted with fourteen women cyclists to capture women who cycle’s images of the future. Three themes emerge from the analysis: why women don’t cycle more, motivators for women encouraging them to cycle more, and the desirability of connecting with other women who do cycle. The findings of the study, further deconstructed using Causal Layered Analysis, result in a deeper understanding of the systemic causes of the issues facing women cyclists, and the worldviews held and narratives owned by society and women themselves which perpetuate those issues.
14. Representations of wildfires in academia
by Max Whitman and Sara Holmgren
Abstract
In response to intensifying wildfire seasons, scholars call for new wildfire policy and management approaches. Based on the assumption that science, policy, and management are integrated spheres of meaning-making, this article aims to contribute to reflective and creative research conversations about fire policy and management by directing analytical attention to the role of science. Using Causal Layered Analysis, we unpack scientific representations of three wildfire events/seasons in Sweden, the US, and Australia. The analysis illustrates that scientific representations of wildfires are contextual and promote particular policy recommendations and management interventions. Furthermore, the review identifies a discrepancy between dominant, more simplistic representations and the dynamic and complex representation emerging from an interdisciplinary reading of the literature. To address this discrepancy, we argue that there is a need to continuously renegotiate the boundaries of wildfires through rethinking the process underpinning the scientific representations to account for the complexity inherent in wildfire events.
15. CLA-Causal Layered Analysis. A Causal analysis stratified as an exercise of Futures working on the present.
Abstract